The journal Lancet recently on 2/16 reported the results of a review study that examined the COVID-19 reinfection rates based on the four variant waves: Wuhan, Alpha, Delta and Omicron. Many ask, “How do I know which one I had?”
Wuhan exploded in March 2020, Alpha toward the end of 2020, Delta in early 2021, Omicron in early 2022
The study “Past SARS-Co-2 Infection Protection Against Re-infection: A Systemic Review and Meta-Analysis” examined 65 studies from 19 countries done between the initial outbreak through September 31, 2022.
It’s important to understand that a review is a summary of many studies. The researchers use statistical techniques to compare different methods. It’s like comparing apples to oranges to strawberries. They’re all fruit but each one has its own different characteristics. The review is important but not as accurate as looking at a single randomly controlled trial.
The researchers examined studies to determine if a previous COVID infection protected a person from a second one. They found that Natural Immunity reduced re-infection by: Wuhan, Alpha and Delta by 78.6% and Omicron by 36.1% after 40 weeks. They wondered if the highly contagious nature of the Omicron variant may have explained the lower effectiveness.
Further, the Natural immunity from a previous infection remained high after 40 weeks reducing severe disease for Wuhan, Alpha, and Delta by 90.2% and Omicron by 88.9%.
Our analysis suggests that the level of protection from past infection by variant and over time is at least equivalent if not greater than that provided by two-dose mRNA vaccines.
They called for healthcare providers and governments to reexamine the role that Natural Immunity plays in COVID-19 prevention strategies such as vaccines, therapies and protocols. May God bless them with wisdom to do so…
Resources:
COVID-19 Forecasting Team, “Past SARS-Co-2 Infection Protection Against Re-infection: A Systemic Review and Meta-Analysis,” (February 16, 2023), Lancet. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(22)02465-5/fulltext
Kathy Katella, “Omicron, Delta, Alpha and More: What to Know about Coronavirus Variants” (February 3, 2023), Yale Medicine. https://www.yalemedicine.org/news/covid-19-variants-of-concern-omicron
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Wake Up Call 911: It’s Time to Reduce your Risk for a Heart Attack and Stroke (2015)
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